An year ago, you would be correct.
Now I doubt it.
While the morale in India is low, England are on a high.
Momentum / morale / confidence does matter a lot in these types of games.
I just want to take you back to a few days ago when South Africa played Australia (at Perth) and were 166/6 or something even worse on the first day. Thanks to a couple of their players, they scrambled to 200 odd. It looked all over for them. They won the test!