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|I wonder who makes these estimations and decisions.
Probably managers who just heard a buzzword, name a price that's high enough to be believable, but low enough to fit in the budget and then management tells some IT people to "move to the cloud".
For example, moving workstations to the cloud is a bad idea.
A powerful enough cloud VM costs a couple of $100's a month.
A equally powerful laptop costs a couple of $1000's once.
The laptop is cheaper after about a year or two, but it'll probably last about five years.
Bad case for the cloud.
On the other hand, I have a small customer with no IT whatsoever.
They literally did everything on paper and then had a computer for some Excel stuff.
I made them a small web application, hosted it in Azure, with an Azure SQL database, Azure AD integration and a Key Vault for security.
Costs them about €50 a month.
Perhaps buying a server and hosting it there would've been cheaper in the long run for the hardware alone, but that's excluding initial setup, licences, updates and maintenance.
Good case for the cloud.
Things are different when you already have software and hardware.
Not everything is "cloud ready" and just replacing a server with a VM is expensive.
Re-architecting software is time consuming and expensive.
All in all, you know it's going to be expensive in a lot of cases.
Now multiply that by three because we're really bad at estimating and you'll have an indication of the actual costs.
I don't think that will ever outweigh the benefits.
Perhaps when you're thinking of a complete or partial rewrite because you have to anyway (for example, to decouple a part of an application as (micro)service), cloud makes a lot more sense.
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