I'd approach it as a constrained optimisation. Take two (intersecting) straight lines. Anchor one at the start point (probably mean of the first "few" points, or an arbitrary stab of the pen), the other similarly at the end. Allow the two slopes to vary (maybe with an extra constraint of (0 < left slope < right slope) and minimise the least squares difference from your raw data. I don't know what package I'd throw it at; maybe something in the Maple class.

Refining the thought bubble somewhat...

Let the intersection point wander round the "lower triangle". (Makes it easier to decide which line to fit a point to); either Monte Carlo it or do a more focused optimisation. Or even do a brute force grid search. I'm guessing the computational effort is in the femto-bitcoin realm.

Cheers,

Peter

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