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Predicting Near Term COVID Death Rates

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2 Jan 2021CPOL1 min read
Using previous case and fatality numbers, predict future death rates based on current case counts
There is an offset between when a COVID case is reported and an eventual death. Using Python, SKLearn and a Jupyter notebook, find the offset in days between the two that results in the best correlation. The resulting linear equation can then accurately predict the number of future deaths based on already reported cases.



This article, along with any associated source code and files, is licensed under The Code Project Open License (CPOL)


About the Author

Don Kackman
Team Leader Starkey Laboratories
United States United States
The first computer program I ever wrote was in BASIC on a TRS-80 Model I and it looked something like:
10 PRINT "Don is cool"
20 GOTO 10

It only went downhill from there.

Hey look, I've got a blog

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