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Desktop (and laptop) sales are going down.
Mobile development will continue to gain momentum as more and more professional applications are converted from desktop to mobile.
Hardware will be more and more "internet" aware, so that there will be no need to be physically connected to a desktop PC; people will be able to connect directly to it from their own mobile device.
For example, medical equipment will be able to directly talk to the medical team from every where, same thing for engineering applications or other fields.
I'd rather be phishing!
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Maximilien wrote: Desktop (and laptop) sales are going down.
I would like a dollar for each of those "down" sales for last year. Just last year.
Actually I would be good with even a penny.
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Maximilien wrote: Desktop (and laptop) sales are going down.
Perhaps, but the installed base is immense. There's no lack of things to do in the desktop.
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Yes, the rise of the "crapp". All focused on not doing anything of substance (that would involve writing actual code, can't have that) and just connecting some different APIs together, I'm sure.
James_Parsons wrote: I don't want to spend time really getting good at something just to find out that no one needs the skill because they can "do it themselves".
Don't then. Why get good at such a specific platform? You can just look that sh*t up. There are more worthy skills to learn, and you no doubt already have.
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James_Parsons wrote: no-code required citizen developer crap
Then again, who writes those apps? Not the 10 year old's. Think of it this way -- these apps are cool for kids (and even adults) who want to play around with their ideas, and I think it's great that these things exist, because every once in a while someone will create something truly unique, at least within the confines of the tool.
And that's the thing, once they realize the tool itself is confining their ideas, they'll start looking at how the tool itself works and discover a whole new world. But without that tool there in the first place, that world may never open up to that person.
James_Parsons wrote: is native mobile application development a lost cause?
Of course not. Today's software development is built on the tools and apps that others had to write from scratch. IDE's, databases, etc., and IMHO, these "citizen developer crap" that teach 10 year old's will eventually mature to real applications that us developers can use to insulate us from the specifics of a mobile device, but some of us will always need to know how to work with these devices at the metal!
James_Parsons wrote: I don't want to spend time really getting good at something just to find out that no one needs the skill because they can "do it themselves".
That's the thing, a technology will always be created that takes the skill out of something, but it takes people who are good at something to look at what their doing and realize that technology can free them from the (come on, confess) mostly drudgery, so that we can go forth with new creative ideas.
Marc
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Like any other endeavor, there will come a time, or perhaps it's already here, where the do-it-yourselfer will be able to do just that. So, if we follow your line of worrying, no one will ever become anything that can be done by anyone else.
Or not.
A gardener isn't a farmer. Having a digital camera and Gimp doesn't make someone a photographer.
What you really need to consider about yourself: are you going to be any better at anything you do then a hobbyist? The answer to that question answers all of your questions.
| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "As far as we know, our computer has never had an undetected error." - Weisert | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you are seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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James_Parsons wrote: that no one needs the skill because they can "do it themselves"...What do y'all think,
People are delusional. Every time some new idiom comes along someone, usually someone selling something, claims that the 'end' is just around the corner.
It isn't going to happen.
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Oh, I heard this argument in the 1980s that code generators will replace programmers.
Then, when VB came out, anyone could program Windows.
Good to hear it continues 
Writing Non-Trivial Software is NOT a Trivial Task.
Building a company around a product, supporting it,
marketing it. Solving specific business needs (or marketable needs).
It takes real work.
That is like being afraid Open Source will replace all paid software gigs,
and everyone will be coding for free as a hobby. Maybe. Doubt it.
Do what you enjoy. When the work devolves into something you no longer enjoy.
Switch to something you do. The amazing thing about this field is that there
is a near endless number of arenas to program in.
We are quite lucky to be right in in history!
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Just be better than (most) everyone else. There's a lot of crap being written out there.
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They're only able to do that citizen code thing because they are consuming APIs that someone more able has created. Some of those people will transition into creating the APIs, but many won't be able to. You want to be one of them that can transition.
That said, stay with the mobile apps as long as they continue to be fun, but definitely grow your skills and knowledge in the API end of things.
We can program with only 1's, but if all you've got are zeros, you've got nothing.
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The fact that citizens cook dinner does not make them top chefs. That citizens drive too fast doesn't make them race car drivers. That citizens buy medications for their sniffles doesn't make them doctors. That citizens wax loquatious about "what's wrong with this country" does not make them statesmen.
There's a huge difference between the dumbed-down tools that let a 10 year old kid draw a smiley face on his phone and the intense programming needed to make the same device run a first-person shooter. There will always be room for professionals. So you should bother to become a professional.
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I have 2 kids in that exact age range and am witnessing this push to learn coding, and I can say with confidence that most of these kids are not going to get into programming, nor will it create a glut of them. The biggest hurdle is that most of them just don't have any burning ideas that they want to create, and my experience since I was 12 and first started learning this stuff is that you need a shining goal. The contrived tutorials where you make a music-search website, or make a robot walk the perimeter of a room, don't make you want to stay up late researching and trying to solve a vexing problem. It's only when you have this cool idea but no clue how to create it that you get the passion to push through the confusing and boring parts and not want to give up. Even the gamer kids don't really want to create games, they want to play them, because once they start learning all the logic required to make event loops and all the things you need to do to make something happen onscreen, they lose interest. I also think you're smart to learn mobile because it's a pretty clear bet that's going to keep getting huger. Even if the exact language changes (ie, you're learning Swift or Java right now and some new language comes along), you'll be in good shape to learn it b/c you already know the attendant concepts, like how to deal with a sudden network loss, and how to design GUIs for a small screen. This stuff is *way* too complicated to reduce to a drag-and-drop, "anyone can do it" design studio. In my opinion the bigger worry in programming is the ever-present preference for youth. I still think there's demand for older programmers (though I don't live in Silicon Valley so I'm sure it's worse there), but the problem I see from my close-to-50 vantage point is that I just don't live and breathe the mobile technology because it's not important to me at this phase of my life. It's more about family now, whereas 25 years ago it was more about "where's the next party? Let's organize a group trip to Vegas! etc", so if mobile technology was around then I would've been more immersed in it--all my friends would be up on the newest stuff, I'd be reading about it, playing with it 24-7, experimenting. At this age I'm content with a phone that makes calls, has a map, and lets me search the web in a pinch if I need to refresh my memory about the War of 1812 or look up the hours of my favorite restaurant. That lack of obsession with technology that just comes naturally with age makes it harder to come up with cool new ideas for programs that run on the phone. I guess to sum this up, I would say not to worry about there being a glut of kids programming for mobile, because it still takes a certain personality type to be interested and good at it, BUT be very aware of trying to keep yourself immersed in the new stuff so your skills are current (not coding skills per se, but current on what technologies are out there and what is needed so you can address those gaps, rather than suggesting ideas that aren't relevant anymore).
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I have been programming for nearly 35 years, and I am mostly self taught. Sure I took a couple of courses at college at night, and a few seminars over the years. But I learned my first language by looking at a listing of a program I used at work on the left side and the language manual on the right ... and it all made sense.
For years just about every new language started out as a way to get normal people to write programs. Apparently it does not work that way.
Based on personal experience over the years, articles I have read, comments on forums such as this one, I do not think programming CAN be taught per se. I have read of and even helped folks with Computer Science degrees who cannot really do it.
A relative used to think I was the quirky brother in law, until a few years ago when he actually worked around programmers. He said they were mostly like me.
So I am not worried, and I do not think you should be either.
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So we have a daily WebEx meeting with some guys in Bangalore. There's 7 Bangaloreans. There's 7 of us in the UK. It's quite a new thing everybody doesn't really know who everybody else is yet. Today, in the UK office, I was sat next to a lady of Chinese origin she whispered to me "IS Murali there?" I took a look at the screen and said "no". She replied "It's just they all look the same to me" 
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There's nothing wrong with being honest 
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PompeyThree wrote: It's just they all look the same to me
Yes, indeed. Two eyes, two ears, nose, mouth, ... same, isn't it?
BTW, I live in Bangalore, and will look exactly the same
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Avijnata wrote: BTW, I live in Bangalore, and will look exactly the same
I had a hunch you were that type of guy 
If the brain were so simple we could understand it, we would be so simple we couldn't. — Lyall Watson
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I'm guessing you have a Tache then?
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Haven't I seen you somewhere?
Mongo: Mongo only pawn... in game of life.
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Don't worry, I've been to Bangalore and everyone looks different (apart from the Europeans).
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PompeyThree wrote: She replied "It's just they all look the same to me" 
My bludging son has an Asian friend in his group who occassionally goes to the same gym as us. He took the last 2 or 3 weeks off cause it's so hard not having a job you need to take time off over Christmas to get over it.
So for the past few weeks I have been chatting with Cindy talking about what a bludger Jeremy is and when he and the rest of the friend group went of getting pissed.
He came back to the gym yesterday, Cindy walked past and said hello to me. He wondered who it was, I said Cindy. It wasn't.
I love to know why she has been talking to me and what the hell she is thinking about the old man that keeps talking to her.
Michael Martin
Australia
"I controlled my laughter and simple said "No,I am very busy,so I can't write any code for you". The moment they heard this all the smiling face turned into a sad looking face and one of them farted. So I had to leave the place as soon as possible."
- Mr.Prakash One Fine Saturday. 24/04/2004
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Let her learn the hard way![^]
Probably NSFW because bad language.
Or just say... "..."
Rules for the FOSW ![ ^]
if(this.signature != "")
{
MessageBox.Show("This is my signature: " + Environment.NewLine + signature);
}
else
{
MessageBox.Show("404-Signature not found");
}
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And? Did you imagine that someone from an ethnic minority wouldn't have the same problem[^] all the rest of us have? It's a universal psychological deficit.
I am not a number. I am a ... no, wait!
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PompeyThree wrote: She replied "It's just they all look the same to me"
Could be simply that you have a skill that she does not.
Look up Prosopagnosia.
Like all human conditions it isn't going to be just an on off switch. There will be degrees associated with it.
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Just six inches of heavy snow and everything's down to a standstill.
I came two hours late for work today as I had to help five people out of the snow. They don't even keep a snow shovel in the car, in the winter!
And in three of the cases I only needed to take over their car for a few meters.
Driving in snow isn't just easy, it's fun.
There's just two thing you need to keep in mind.
Don't spin the wheels, and keep the momentum.
And just one more thing, you need to know when you can't!
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