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With the ability to write simulators and virtual machines...
I am quite surprised that they are building chips. I would have
assumed that they simulated 2 ways of doing things, and proved the qubits work.
I do fully expect it to be in my life time. In my grandmas lifetime,
she went from an outdoor bathroom without electricity, to just now. We
walked on the moon. We print organs, and the space station printed a tool.
We have LED lights. While I could see it taking 30 years, even Gary Kasparov
missed how fast these things mature. We used to say things like "Nobody needs
more than 640K" to "Design without limits".
My phone has more CPU and Memory than the computers that put people on the moon!
Having grown up with Tape Drives and paper terminals... We are already light years
ahead, and the rate of change appears to be increasing still...
Moores law should have died a decade ago. But these sneaky engineers keep thinking
outside the box. (BTW, my professor, in 1990 had a proof that they could not do it
again, based on the speed of light, and the physical width of the chip. I Believe
they simply made the chip taller and put the timing stuff through the middle of
the chip. Getting another doubling. So, I thought it was close back then.)
I have since adopted a more enlightened view that we will find a way.
That said, this quantum computing has parallels with bad science. Building it
before simulating it bothers me a lot. In my AI class we built neural networks,
and trained them. We could "prove" learning theory. We could "predict" human
learning problems (grammar exceptions that tripped up the AI, would trip up a human, until memorized)...
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I would really like to be just starting out and watching the technology evolve.
The technology I have seen evolve in my lifetime will be quaint when viewed 20/30 years from now.
Once you lose your pride the rest is easy.
In the end, only three things matter: how much you loved, how gently you lived, and how gracefully you let go of things not meant for you. – Buddha
Simply Elegant Designs JimmyRopes Designs
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The only saving grace for us is that we can say we lived to see all the changes that took place during out life time and since nothing is given they can't say for certain that they'll live to see it. We could blow ourselves up tomorrow?
New version: WinHeist Version 2.1.0
My goal in life is to have a psychiatric disorder named after me.
I'm currently unsupervised, I know it freaks me out too but the possibilities are endless.
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Mike Hankey wrote: We could blow ourselves up tomorrow
We have come close before so it is a possibility. 
One of the reasons I live in this part of the world. Less likely to be a target of a direct strike. Not saying that surviving will be much fun.
Of course I must consider that I am currently living under Martial Law. Luckily out in the hinterland life goes on pretty much unaffected.
Once you lose your pride the rest is easy.
In the end, only three things matter: how much you loved, how gently you lived, and how gracefully you let go of things not meant for you. – Buddha
Simply Elegant Designs JimmyRopes Designs
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Ah - but have you ever played with a KSR 35, PDP 8, Varian Data Machines 16 bit computer?
I have!
The Irishman
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No but I did have an Altair 8800[^].
New version: WinHeist Version 2.1.0
My goal in life is to have a psychiatric disorder named after me.
I'm currently unsupervised, I know it freaks me out too but the possibilities are endless.
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I just hope that it is not like fusion where we will have it 20 years. And 40 years later it is still in 20 years.
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Not! Not! Not!
We're looking at replacing the heating system in Hungary with a ground source heat pump. The system works by pumping cold water through the ground where it heats up, then a heat exchange in the house provides hot water and/or central heating. In the summer this can be reversed to cool the house down as well. As we have a large south facing roof, we should be able to power the whole thing from solar a PV bank. Net running cost should then be in the range of low to little. But then there's the cost of putting the system. Put this way, the latest quote I have received would mean that it pays for itself in around 15 years.
I was just wondering if anyone has any experience with this or any other of the new fangled renewables.
veni bibi saltavi
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From what I've seen of renewables, if the estimate is "it will pay for itself in 15 years" then once you figure in the riding cost of fuels, taxes on the fuels, etc., and factor in the annual cleaning of the solar panels to make them continue to work efficiently...
...it'll break down after three years, and cost twice as much to fix as the original installation, "assuming I can get the parts, Squire".
Our local council fitted a wind turbine at the Waste Dump / Recycling Centre on the grounds that it would save a fortune in the long run. And took it away two years later as it saved pretty much sod-all and cost a fortune to maintain... 
Bad command or file name. Bad, bad command! Sit! Stay! Staaaay...
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Spot on! 
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My brother installed a heat exchange system for his farm in the north of Sweden, burying the pipes 1.5 meters down in a field. It produces enough heat to keep two decent-sized (ca 200 sq.meters) houses warm in winter, and hot water for both. It's not set up to provide cooling though.
He reckons it will have paid for itself after 7 years, though this is helped by him letting one of the houses out with heating included in the rent.
If you have space to install it, I reckon it makes sense. Just check expected lifetime and warranties of all the subsystems.
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My uncle has solar panels on his roof, he assumed that it pays after 15 to 20 years, according to the energy he produces and how much he needs for him self, the overproduction gets "selled".
So basically you have to do the maths according to your need, your probable output and the possibility to sell overproduction?
Solar panels pay off quite late if you don't have horrendous costs. But therefore you can call your self a little greener 
I will mount some on my house, as soon as i build it ^^
For the ground source heat pump, i have no one i know who uses that, but it seems a quite good thingy.
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else
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}
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I"m sure the panels will wear out, fog, oxidize or some other form of degradation prior to the 15 years are up!
George
Retired Chemist
The Irishman
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When we get to the point of parting with some money, Mrs Wife will be in full control. She always is.
veni bibi saltavi
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Nagy,
I've had a geothermal HVAC system for over 12 years. Depending on your costs, I suspect that the pay-back time has been over estimated. I was in profit in under 10. These systems are extremely reliable and there are potentially more benefits than just economics. If your system uses forced air, in winter the air is warm, not hot. In summer the air is cool, not cold. This reduces issues of hot (cold) zones in the house and large temperature fluctuations. This makes it a very comfortable system.
Normally the system should be set up to preheat your how water too(this might require installation of an insulated storage tank or a larger hot water tank to get the full benefit). I have quite an old compressor, there are now available multistage compressors that are a lot more efficient. hence my feeling that you pay-back should be quicker.
My system cost me 35 - 40% of the heating energy and 30-35% for cooling, giving me a savings of over 60%. Cooling gives more savings than heating as your are pumping excess heat into cold water, not warm moist air as per normal air conditioning systems.
Full disclosure: I also have an 8kW solar array, I'm a lifelong self-confessed eco-freak! (I drive a hybrid too).
Life is like a s**t sandwich; the more bread you have, the less s**t you eat.
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we're in the process of building a house with group-loop heating / AC. there are some big tax credits for it, for us.
we skipped the rooftop solar because of up-front cost, but it's something we'll do later if the money works out.
modified 5-Mar-15 10:01am.
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Nagy Vilmos wrote: it pays for itself in around 15 years.
99.9% of anything you purchase, especially for your home should "pay for itself" withing 3-5 years, not 15.
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Why?
Purely from an investment standpoint, a certain 6.7% return is pretty damn good. It could be that power is cheaper in Hungary compared to installation cost, but 15 years is very conservative in my experience.
If you are planning to sell within the 5 year horizon, you might not get the full value, although it should add to the selling price of the home.
Many things we buy are effectively for consumption and have no payback per se. Even something like a geothermal installation might also improve comfort. and getting a return is a bonus, so the statement is questionable.
Life is like a s**t sandwich; the more bread you have, the less s**t you eat.
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I personally don't know many people who have been in there home for more than 15 years. Getting a return on your investment in 15 years is totally absurd to me for a heating/cooling system.
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Who said you need to be there for 15 years? Any real improvement in a house is reflected in its selling price.
Again, if you sell in less than 5, you might take a bath, deeper research and advice from real estate professionals would be required as the value of the home is unlikely to be raised by the original installation cost.
You could use exactly the same argument against new windows, a new roof or almost any home improvement. Try selling a house with any major feature missing or in poor repair!
You get a return on your investment in year 1. It's only a wise investment if the return and the residual value (in this case how much it increases the value of the house) is better than placing the investment elsewhere and/or you get some other perceived value.
Life is like a s**t sandwich; the more bread you have, the less s**t you eat.
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PhilLenoir wrote: Any real improvement in a house is reflected in its selling price.
IMHO, not an entirely true statement.
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So you're saying you think people would pay the same for a house with leaky, compromised windows than for the same house with new double glazing or one that costs 1500 a year to heat and cool than one that costs 500?
If this is true in your real estate market, I suggest that it's not normal.
Life is like a s**t sandwich; the more bread you have, the less s**t you eat.
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Not the same, but you can't expect your investments to be fully amortised through higher sales prizes! I can tell you from first hand experience, as I'm currently selling my house. As matters are, getting back more than 50% of my investments from the past two years seems highly unlikely. (and that's before fees and taxes, which are raised due to the potentially higher sell price)
At the very least, by asking for a higher sell price you're excluding potential buyers simply because they can't afford it, no matter how much they would be saving in the long run (e. g. due to geothermal heating).
Even for those taking a look, whatever you invested money in may not have been to their liking, or they might have been able to get a better deal for doing the same. Therefore it will not have the same value for them as it has for you.
GOTOs are a bit like wire coat hangers: they tend to breed in the darkness, such that where there once were few, eventually there are many, and the program's architecture collapses beneath them. (Fran Poretto)
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Stefan,
That's not what I stated. the amount you get back depends entirely on the type of "improvement", how long and how well it was done (and other factors). Sometimes an investment is more than recouped. There's a whole slew of TV programmes based on this (the UK's Secret Agent being just one of these). There are some conditions in a property that are so off-putting that they severely depress the value. Most commonly and perversely, these are usually actually trivial in nature and decorative.
On the other hand, some alterations to a house might actually reduce it's value (e.g. doing something that doesn't comply with building codes or really bad decoration).
I used the term "Real Improvement" to mean something like improved insulation, more efficient heating/cooling, repairing an obvious flaw (a leaky roof). I also used the term "reflected". This does not necessarily mean full recovery of residual value. There are many variables involved in a value of property, but any real improvement will increase the value.
How much an alteration affects value would have to be considered taking these many factors into account. Creating a $2M house next to a municipal dump is a poor investment decision. The person wanting a $2M house will not buy there. Having said that it has more value than a leaky half-standing hovel next door; it's just not a good investment choice.
This sub-thread started with the statement along the lines that you should never make an investment with payback of less than a few years. If this were true, nobody would ever put in new windows, re-shingle a roof .... In my view the statement was a silly one. Many (most?) purchase decisions we make have no pay-back, they are simply consumption. In Economics the terms "list of preferences" and "perceived value" are used; these concepts drive our buying decisions, even investment decisions - Blood Diamonds might have been a good investment, but you'd never find me investing in them.
Back to Nagy's original question: Even a 15 year payback is simply looking at energy expense versus installation cost. What if he'd need to install or upgrade the existing heating system anyway? What if there's no air conditioning and he values AC highly. If he sells the property on 10 years time, how much will the improvement affect the expected price. Finally what about his personal perceived value. All these points are valid and make a mockery of the original post that I replied to. Now if your argument is that you plan to, or are likely to, move in 2-3 years then that makes many major improvements questionable from an investment standpoint. There is a bell curve and timescales and local market conditions and projections should guide such decisions. Nagy's a smart guy (at least when he's off the gin [second thoughts - cancel that, I'm not sure he's ever off the gin!]) and I'm sure he'll figure it out.
Life is like a s**t sandwich; the more bread you have, the less s**t you eat.
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