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Hear, hear.
Laptops are awful to type on and it's not easy to add extra gubbins to them.
Tablets are toys. Nothing more to say.
"Smart" phones are for people who don't want to see the world around them but would rather play games or text someone miles away rather than talk to the person next to them. Antisocial nonsense! Join the luddites.
I may not last forever but the mess I leave behind certainly will.
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As the pundits have been saying, and to which I actually agree, desktop PC's will be replaced by something no bigger than your phone. But it won't happen in 2016. Probably more like by 2026.
Yes, the IoT is a true market, but unfortunately it's arriving at the wrong time -- too much chaos in the open source arena, too many stupid methodologies, so IoT will be severely hampered by a myriad of open source yet incompatible communication protocols all of which are designed and implemented by people who's skills would, if this was a century earlier, be employed, at best, at shoveling out horse sh*t.
One only needs to look at the number of SBC's out there, and my personal experience with trying to get anything real working on one of them (the Beaglebone Black.) Nonetheless, the concept of small, autonomous yet connected devices is definitely here to stay.
The whole issue of cloud computing is interesting as well. I imagine there will be a divergence between "dumb phones" that basically run everything on the cloud and "power phones" where you can have SQL Server, Visual Studio, Office, etc., all loaded on the phone with power to spare.
So, three prongs are replacing the desktop PC: cloud, phone-like device, and SBC. But the box we now call the desktop PC will be gone, replaced with a more appropriate-for-the-requirement device. Give it another 10-20 years for enough dried out horse sh*t dust in the air to settle though.
Marc
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The reason I use a desktop is I/O - I need a "full size" keyboard to type fast (lappie ones are too cramped) and I need two 24" monitors to see everything I want. Anything less and I'm a whole load less efficient. (Have you tried coding on a phone or even a touchscreen tablet?  )
So, for me are least, a desktop is a necessity- I could use a lappie and plug these things in, but then I've got a thin desktop I can't put anything on top of! 
Bad command or file name. Bad, bad command! Sit! Stay! Staaaay...
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OriginalGriff wrote: I need a "full size" keyboard to type fast
If you really want to improve typing speed, go back to the 101-Key Keyboards, designed in, what ? 1987 ?
I write these words with personal experience.
Noisy as a woodpecker, but significantly enhanced speed.
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I really miss that old IBM AT keyboard. As you said; noisier than a woodpecker, but you just knew when a keystroke was entered!
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I use a very old Compaq PS2 keyboard simply because I can't find a modern one that gives proper tactile feedback.
They are like trying to type on marshmallow.
I may not last forever but the mess I leave behind certainly will.
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ClockMeister wrote: I really miss that old IBM AT keyboard.
Herbie Mountjoy wrote: I can't find a modern one that gives proper tactile feedback.
I think mine cost $90. You can still get them here: Unicomp, Inc.[^]
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Thanks for the link! Just bought one. Large font on keys. 
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I do all my programming for work on a laptop. I have 2 huge monitors and a regular keyboard and mouse. I have a 6 port USB hub that the keyboard and mouse plug into. I love full size pc's for nostalgia reasons, but laptops are fine, really. Just get a good one.
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Those big cases can get smaller. Let's be honest here, they're mostly empty. We might even, horror of horrors, see a return of the "let's put everything in the screen, people call that 'the computer' already anyway", on the low to middle end.
But the vertical screen + mouse + keyboard are not replaceable until something better comes along, which hasn't happened yet.
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harold aptroot wrote: Let's be honest here, they're mostly empty.
Thermodynamics still happens.
(Should that be "happen" ? Singular ? Plural ?)
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It's not the 60 liters of volume that does the cooling in a normal size case, it's the flow.
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I believe that the notion of the desktop PC (ie the box under your desk not on top of it!) is on the way out. It will be replaced by a phone style device, but with an enhanced "docking station" style thingy so that you can have your dual/quad 24" monitors, keyboard and mouse.
Certainly my phone in raw horsepower is far faster than the machine I developed on 5 years ago and only cost £100!
Maybe the interim is a RDP/VNC type lightweight box which just handles the IO over a nice decent fast low power WiFi/Bluetooth.
I may be a software developer, but I can do other things too!
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Buzzword check please, "RDP/VNC". I don't know it.
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richp669 wrote: under your desk not on top of it!
Nope, on top.
You know what ? Another discussion some day; but whether under, over, beside, or behind, the wires ruin these things for me. I'm sure that I have more than ten sticking out of mine, and other folks here probably double that.
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Computers have become ‘household goods’, used 99% as entertainment devices ! A far cry from what their original purpose was… The manufacturers, as docile animals of the capitalist society, responded to the need of the paying masses, which are not quite computer literate and as a matter of fact, never needed computers (most don’t even realize what a computer is) to begin with. And, just like the ordinary citizen who’s political knowledge, IQ, or even mental health is never questioned, has the right to vote and influence the country’s future, so have these masses the power to influence the desktop’s (and computers in general) fate. While the parallel and serial ports have disappeared, the desktops now are covered with tons of USB ports, HDMI’s, Smart Card interfaces, microphone and 7-8 audio outputs, just to name a few! And that’s just hardware! Software wise? See the direction of ‘progress’ from, say, XP to Windows 10… 
That ugly box taking space under the table, which they never quite knew what purpose it served (because the computer was, obviously, the monitor sitting on the table!), can go! They have been given new toys to play with: first laptops, then tablets and (huge) smart phones. They can now play their music, videos and games, watch (and shaaaare!) their pictures, f#&ckbook or tweet each-other on more appropriate devices.
The desktop can finally return to serve its original purpose, used by people (and businesses) who really need it and know how to make use of it. The production of desktops (and probably not far from now, laptops) will be severely reduced, but they’ll not go extinct. From my point of view it will just recover from a the long illness of being misused and raped by barbarians.
Just my (not so humble) opinion.
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Luschan wrote: The production of desktops (and probably not far from now, laptops) will be severely reduced, but they’ll not go extinct.
So, will their cost go up ?
I doubt that Luschan is the only one who believes various parts of that future as described.
More to the point: Microsoft has probably had this same discussion, most probably years ago, probably with market scientists to advise them; Apple as well.
Are those market scientists better than us ? I'll wonder.
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Yes - you can expect that the cost of a PC will rise, since demand for these "boxes" will not be there from the average consumer. As already noted, consumers want smaller devices - they want (and already are!) to use their phones and tablets for their stuff. For certain tasks, they may still need a keyboard, but there are plenty of bluetooth keyboards that can take care of that.
For those of us on the content creation side of things, though - a phone or a tablet just will not do (for anything other than debugging our content, of course). We need real PCs, with real keyboards (and you'll have to pry my Model M from my cold dead hands). We want real hardware, that is upgradeable.
You can still expect there to be a large PC gamer market, though, that will keep prices down for a while, but as other options open up to that market, and their demand for PCs drops as well, expect the prices of a PC (and their components) to rise - perhaps steeply.
In fact - you might even see a "renaming" of what a PC is - something to give it the cachet of it being for the "content creators" and not for the "content consumers". Of course, this rebranding (similar to the concept of a "personal computer" vs a "workstation computer") will also entail higher prices for those purchasing such machines.
What I fear, though, is not so much the PC going away - but our control of it going away. I want to use my PC however I want. I want to be able to mod it, to put whatever software and operating system I choose on it (subject to the regular restraints of said software and OS being able to use the architecture, of course), to add my own custom hardware (that I soldered together) whenever I want.
I don't want to be in a walled garden that I have to r00t and jailbreak just to gain some measure of control back. If I buy it, I should own it. If I own it, I should be able to do whatever I want with it - whether it's legal or illegal (and if illegal and I am caught - then I should be adult enough to know this, and willing to face those consequences). I don't need to have my hand held, or to be told what is right and ok, vs what is wrong and verboten. I am an adult - I can make those decisions for myself.
Unfortunately - this isn't the direction the phone and tablet market (ie - Android and iOS) have taken - and regular consumers have lapped it up like a dog; they don't care - in fact, some if not most have no clue, of if they do, they love it! They think they are protected, and safe from problems and viruses. When the fact is, they are more vulnerable than ever. Not just from bad actors - but also from the corporations behind their devices. Don't pay your bill? Guess what - your data is gone! Send an email to the wrong "group"? We'll just censor that!
Ok - not today, maybe - but perhaps tomorrow? Well - not here in the West - but in other parts of the world, certain accessing can get you in big trouble today! And yes, it could happen here in the West, too. Only a fool would think differently, given the revelations of Snowden and others.
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C-P-User-3 wrote: Who will use Desktop PCs in the coming year ? What about 5 years from now ?
Who will make the purchases ?
Me
Me (if I live that long)
Me
Think that about wraps that up for you.
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I don't know bout you guys, but I'd like to see
my lap/desktop cpu and programs just live in my phone. a lot already do.
but to toss the lap/desktop, I'm gonna need this phone to wifi/bluetooth to a dock that hooks to my 2 monitors and 12 usb devices.
When this dang iot finally comes up with the one true protocol, they can talk to that dock, too. Well, the dock will BE that one true protocol.
I also see windows phone dieing a horrible death. (ok ok, it already did.)
I also see those stupid lightweight universal windows apps dieing a horrible death.
I also DON'T want to see microsoft as a whole die a horrible death, but that seems to be the direction they're marching in. Guys! Google is eating you for breakfast! Remember when you ate IBM for breakfast? It's like that. Guys?
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I can only speak for myself as a software developer - and I agree with Griff all the way - I'm most productive with acres of screen, full size keyboard and a comfortable mouse. I still love my 2010 desktop running Win7 on an early Core i7 cpu. However, my new desktop is Win10 with the OS on an SSD, a huge disk, and one of those new 34" curved displays. Oh man, this system is sweet.
I have a nice i5 laptop for business trips and presentations but, powerful as it is, it's no replacement for the big, cool and quiet box under my desk. This might be the last big box that I ever purchase, but for now I'm loving it.
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The "CPU" might shrink to the size of a walnut but the I/O devices (mouse, keyboard, monitor etc.) are not likely to miniaturize unless your hands follow suit. I can see monitors getting even thinner (maybe Xenon-gas suspended images or something) but the dimensions of the screen surface are going to have to remain large enough for human eyes to see (unless you feel like implanting the devices in your head or something). Same with mouse & keyboard ... there's a limit to how small a device can be before you can't manipulate it with your hand any more. If computers get so "Hal" like that you just talk to 'em ... well, I think I'll just go do something else!
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I think we may see some stabilization take place. The new equipment that's for sale doesn't (in my opinion) offer a whole lot of functionality that isn't present in hardware that's a few years old. Just my 2-cents.
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This reminds me of the question "will internet connections all be wireless one day?". The answer imho is no because wired/optical connections should always outpace wireless in bandwidth. So to the question will desktops be replaced by phones/tablets/cloud the answer for me is definitively no!
I need several massive video cards in SLI to render Fallout 4 nicely and lots of video RAM to model in Maya. I need several monitors to develop in Unity3D's many IDE panels. I need massive hard drive space to store my Photoshop files. I cannot debug in Visual Studio with even a little cloud lag.
That said I do find myself being able to do more and more tasks on my Sager laptop with the caveat that the quadcore, 32GB RAM and replaceable NVidia GPU sizes it to a brick but still I can use it on the couch.
One final note who puts their lovingly crafted desktop on the floor?
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