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It hits the same tipping point that ML (AI "content generation") stuff hits.
Once you have it creating most of what it is learning it isn't really creating or learning anymore.
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Unless that modelling correctly understands human behavior it will fail, just like all other economic central planners have failed.
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perhaps ai can deduce human behavior just as it deduces other matters from vast data sets exempli gratia ai is beginning to deduce the rules of physic and obviously human conversation/chat etc .
furthermore i have some regard for social scientists whom investigate . it is unfortunate they are not consulted by governments whilst forming policy .
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I think that you are much too optimistic.
It is not sufficient to collect a large mass of data and throw an "AI" at it. A model with a set of degrees of freedom (parameters) must be developed, and then the AI may be "trained" to adjust the parameters so as best to fit the data. This assumes that the parameters are not time-dependent, which is an even more difficult problem.
On the micro level, any national economy has a large number of degrees of freedom (underestimated as 1 degree per person). No model, AI or otherwise, comes even close to handling such a large number of variables. Furthermore, the "boundary conditions", i.e. interactions outside the national economy, are at least as complex. It may be possible that the smallest unit that may be modelled is the planetary economy.
On the macro level, economists have yet to identify the variables that are important to the economy, the proof being their inability to forecast anything but the most general trends.
EDIT: grammar
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.
modified 2-Oct-23 1:24am.
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It also assumes people "never change" ... I "change" based on issues and have never stated "I always vote that way".
"Before entering on an understanding, I have meditated for a long time, and have foreseen what might happen. It is not genius which reveals to me suddenly, secretly, what I have to say or to do in a circumstance unexpected by other people; it is reflection, it is meditation." - Napoleon I
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Gerry Schmitz wrote: It also assumes people "never change"
I wrote: "This assumes that the parameters are not time-dependent, which is an even more difficult problem."
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.
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I got news for y'all... bots have been used in the markets for years now. Just about every market is manipulated too. So, whether it's to benefit a few people or machines, either way you're screwed.
And yes, I know you beat the odds. Don't mean they're not already botted, etc. though.
Jeremy Falcon
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BernardIE5317 wrote: i just now learned of ai economic forecasting/modelling
So AI exists by consuming existing materials.
So who is presuming that the human economists are doing a great job?
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It will probably be like Metal Gear. War is the quickest way to make a profit. And the machine will quickly learn that.
Without the military industry complex there would be no Federal Reserve. Without the Federal Reserve there wouldn't be a military industry complex. Two evil organizations that need each other.
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"I've seen it," said Marvin. "It's rubbish."
(I saw it from the outside about a year ago.)
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But do you have a terrible pain in all the diodes down your left side?
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
"Common sense is so rare these days, it should be classified as a super power" - Random T-shirt
AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
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Not all of them; but it's the replacement leg that's a bigger issue.
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That's the NHS for you; even a robot won't live long enough to get treatment.
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.
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Indeed, the first million years are always there worst.
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I saw the Opera House about the time construction was complete. It was impressive, indeed!
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I lived in Vegas, by the strip, for a year. Literally the worse year of my entire life. If you go, go as a tourist and never leave the strip. I've met some nice people there, but I also I met a lot of immature people like dudes working at the grocery store that were into me and treated me like crap because it was not mutual. Like this was high school. Everyone smokes there - everyone - everywhere. Sometimes it's tobacco. Most of the times it's the herb. So if you want clean air and value intelligent consciousness then stay away.
They do try to limit the nastiness a bit on the strip because that's the money maker. It's also an illusion. And don't be shocked because there's a lot of homeless people in the strip. They're just hiding. They'll never show that in the ads though.
Just don't believe everything you see on TV/online. Most of it is a lie. So, if you go, do the touristy thing, unless you're a stoner with zero ambition in life.
Jeremy Falcon
modified 2-Oct-23 7:40am.
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In 2002 I went to a American Society of Clinical Pharmacist convention in Vegas
Booked a room in advance close to the venue
When I checked in no one said anything about the fridge in the room
I opened it twice once to see the selection and second time to see if it contained water NO WATER
When I checked out my bill included a charge for the fridge WHAT
I did not take anything from the fridge! YES but you opened it
Informed them to call the police as I was about to leave without paying the bill
After 20 min a manager said it was Hotel Policy GREAT I SAID
My POLICY is not to pay for something I did not purchase and opening a door is not proof of purchase
Also nowhere did you inform me of the Hotel Policy
they removed the charge
It must be part of the USA Open Door Policy
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The crazy part is, the tourist spots are actually the nice spots. That's their money maker.
Jeremy Falcon
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on a brief trip to Los Angeles many years ago i briefly dealt with several personnel exempli gratia sales/business/office clerks re/ minor matters . each dealt w/ me as if attempting to audition for a tv game show by demonstrating their rude cleverness . i am from the mid-west . i have never encountered such behavior prior .
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Just to give you a frame of reference, people will be getting stoned in the hospitals there. Want to watch a movie? People smoking it up inside the theater too. Rent an office? Expect jackarses to smoke it up the lobby. No matter who you tell, there's always another one. You're outnumberd.
You tell them to stop; they get angry. How dare you take away their precious herb? God forbid they function as a normal human.
Jeremy Falcon
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Not to mention people will rob and con you all the time there. Literally have no soul. They'll look you straight in the eye and lie to you. And I don't mean just at the strip. I'm talking about at the grocery store too. Speaking of which, I can't even talk about the crap you'll find in the grocery store parking lot because it's not lounge friendly.
Point is... it's all an illusion. Go play the tourist game and then leave. If you're not a tourist Vegas is the filthiest "nice" place (city has money because it was built on losers gambling) you'll ever visit.
Jeremy Falcon
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Been there before ... It's the same all over the world. I don't gamble, but that venue is like nothing else.
Graeme
"I fear not the man who has practiced ten thousand kicks one time, but I fear the man that has practiced one kick ten thousand times!" - Bruce Lee
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I lived there. So, did you live there or just visit as a tourist? Because if you didn't live there then you should listen to what I'm saying about how nasty that place is.
Jeremy Falcon
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Also, it was worse there, when compared to other places in the US. I realize this is the Internet and if people can't disagree they have nothing to talk about, but I promise I have the ability to contrast and compare.
Jeremy Falcon
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