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raddevus wrote: and therefore cannot affect its value.
Which value? It is the result of a calculation: it has no value in itself.
* CALL APOGEE, SAY AARDWOLF
* GCS d--- s-/++ a- C++++ U+++ P- L- E-- W++ N++ o+ K- w+++ O? M-- V? PS+ PE- Y+ PGP t++ 5? X R++ tv-- b+ DI+++ D++ G e++>+++ h--- ++>+++ y+++* Weapons extension: ma- k++ F+2 X
* Never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game.
* I'm a puny punmaker.
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Just as the bank notes we have in our pockets have no value. They are just paper.
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Exactly. It has (or doesn't have) value all in relation to what the people who use it or don't use it believe. However, because management of cryptocurrencies are decentralized it _may_ allow them to have value that is _more_ based upon the actual people and not a particular authority (govt, bank, etc) suddenly says that it has a particular value. It's an interesting concept.
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A bit more than a number which is a result of a calculation. How much "42" and "1337" is worth a kilo of bread?
But hey, if people want to buy numbers, I think I have some unused ones to sell.
* CALL APOGEE, SAY AARDWOLF
* GCS d--- s-/++ a- C++++ U+++ P- L- E-- W++ N++ o+ K- w+++ O? M-- V? PS+ PE- Y+ PGP t++ 5? X R++ tv-- b+ DI+++ D++ G e++>+++ h--- ++>+++ y+++* Weapons extension: ma- k++ F+2 X
* Never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game.
* I'm a puny punmaker.
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That's mostly a problem of acceptance than value. I bet that if I pick a 100USD bill and go to the market and try to buy a bread, they won't sell me a bread that costs 1EUR. Why? Because only EUR is accepted in my country.
A smart cashier might put 1EUR from his pocket and let me take the bread, keeping the 100USD for him. But that's another story... 
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ssoares wrote: Just as the bank notes we have in our pockets have no value.
First world currencies are far less volatile than crypto currencies in terms of valuation. This is both due to perception and reality that the respective country can and will make changes if the currency becomes too volatile. There is nothing at all like that for cryto currencies.
If anything crypto currencies seem to behave more like third world nations which can and do suffer from hyper inflation and deflation.
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raddevus wrote: But you know that the main point of cryptocurrencies is that they are decentralized, right?
Yup yup. But what I'm getting at is that they'll never be fully adopted as the defacto currency until the government and banks get involved. People with power tend not to give it up so easily.
raddevus wrote: It doesn't rely on any central authority and so no one can own it or really control it and that is an important part of the entire thing.
It's also why, if people decide they trust it then it will work and no one can really regulate it.
Totally, but it's like the Internet all over again. The more popular it gets the more the the government will get involved, which they've been doing with online matters more and more these days.
Jeremy Falcon
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I don't own any BitCoin, but I can see its value; the others may not adhere to the same principles and may not yield similar results. Also, there is the lesson learned from the Spanish conquest; if you drown the market with alternatives, all options will suffer. Looks like a strategy to me.
With "suffering" meaning it is now trading at more than 4750 euro's; and cryptocurrencies are by no means something that can be considered "mainstream" - there's not a lot of shops accepting those things.
Bastard Programmer from Hell 
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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As we speak Bitcoin, Ethereum and LiteCoin are all down, Bitcoin -3.59%. It's nowt more than a gamble in a highly volatile market.
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R. Giskard Reventlov wrote: Bitcoin -3.59%. It's nowt more than a gamble in a highly volatile market.
..and how is the result based on its ten year performance? Anything that is traded in a volatile market moves up and down fast, but only BC keeps climbing as gold was expected to 
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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Keep in mind I don't follow bitcoin... but I do follow real currencies. So just to pitch in... extreme volatility can be the result of a couple things... one of which is low volume. Bitcoin is the most popular one out there, so by virtue of that, even though it's volatile I would suspect it would be less volatile than the crypto-currencies that nobody knows about.
Volatility is a double-edged sword. If you know what you're doing you can make money quickly with it. If you don't, you can lose money quickly with it. Good fun.
Jeremy Falcon
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Jeremy Falcon wrote: I do follow real currencies.
You mean "official fiat" based currencies
Even pure bullshit does not loose a value of 2% annually 
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: how is the result based on its ten year performance
You mean apart from the fact it hasn't been around that long and most crypto-currencies are months old???
Eddy Vluggen wrote: Anything that is traded in a volatile market moves up and down fast, but only BC keeps climbing as gold was expected to
It's still subject to wild volatility and goes down as well as up.
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R. Giskard Reventlov wrote: You mean apart from the fact it hasn't been around that long and most crypto-currencies are months old???
The subject was BitCoin
R. Giskard Reventlov wrote: It's still subject to wild volatility and goes down as well as up.
Again, what is the long-term trend? 
Looks like it be going up from where I'm standing, even if it stumbles now and then.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: Looks like it be going up from where I'm standing, even if it stumbles now and then.
That is an overly optimistic view and I'm an optimist.
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Sounds more like you're confusing up with down.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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Au contraire, I think you're getting right and left the wrong way round.
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What is this "up and down" of which you speak? Oh, right, you are interested in how much BitCoin is worth in terms of dollars... A lot of people are also interested in crypto-currency's technical characteristics; blockchain, security, how they get 'mined'.
To me I think the most interesting aspect in evaluating BitCoin is what can I buy with it, and how stable are those prices. I'm only a casual observer, but so far it seems like mostly I can buy illegal goods and pay off ransomware. If so, in this regard, I'd say BitCoin and all the rest are still useless (worthless?) to me.
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Ken Utting wrote: To me I think the most interesting aspect in evaluating BitCoin is what can I buy with it, and how stable are those prices.
A the "unstable" argument; while most fiat-currencies are devalued (nice and stable), BC cannot be devalued. That means that, as a measurement-unit for value, it is hard to beat 
Ken Utting wrote: I'm only a casual observer, but so far it seems like mostly I can buy illegal goods and pay off ransomware.
Which was not possible with the other currencies - there were no illegal goods before BitCoin existed 
Bastard Programmer from Hell 
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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When I talk about stability of prices, what I mean is, if it costs X BC to buy a widget today, how many BC does the widget cost a year from now? If a widget costs me 10 BC today, 35 next week and 5 the week after that, it isn't doing a very good job as a currency, in my opinion.
And I'm not saying that BC is no good because it helps me buy illegal items. I'm saying it seems useless if I can't use it to go and buy groceries, or gas, or pay my mortgage, or whatever. And I know there is some gradual adoption of BC for ordinary goods, and so some day maybe it will be more useful. But the endless splintering into me-too "currencies" doesn't help.
It just seems to me that a lot of the excitement around this stuff is due to the investment angle or the philosophical angle. But in order to sustain itself, its eventually got to become more useful as a currency.
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Ken Utting wrote: If a widget costs me 10 BC today, 35 next week and 5 the week after that, it isn't doing a very good job as a currency, in my opinion.
In BC-terms, it would be 10 BC today, 11 the day after, then 13, back to 11 and up to 20. Now tell me you don't want your savings to do that
Ken Utting wrote: I'm saying it seems useless if I can't use it to go and buy groceries, or gas, or pay my mortgage, or whatever. And I know there is some gradual adoption of BC for ordinary goods, and so some day maybe it will be more useful.
No, that may make it useless to you, but that does not affect anything else. So, what do you think may happen if it may become more of a mainstream-thing and demand multiplies by a tenfold?
Ken Utting wrote: It just seems to me that a lot of the excitement around this stuff is due to the investment angle or the philosophical angle. But in order to sustain itself, its eventually got to become more useful as a currency.
You mean like rise in price to show the inflationary effect, like gold would have were it not for the paper-gold in existence?
While you do not deem it usefull, others are using it
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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I think we're talking past each other. You keep talking about the price of BC; i.e. the conversion of BC and dollars. So I think you're thinking of BC as something you bought with your extra dollars and stuck in an account. If the value goes up over time, no matter how volatile it is, you're happy. To me, that means you're thinking of it as an investment.
And of course you're right. If BC goes mainstream and demand goes up tenfold, your investment in BC should do quite well. But I'm saying that for this to happen, it will have to function better as a currency.
I'm envisioning trying to use BC for everyday life, which is quite different than an investment, right? Here, volatility is a huge concern. No one wants the price of a loaf of bread to "be 10 BC today, 11 the day after, then 13, back to 11 and up to 20". And of course, you need to have a way to buy the loaf of bread without exchanging your BC for dollars every day.
And the reason I'm thinking of BC in this way is because, ultimately, that is what BC needs in order to go mainstream, right? It's not stock in a company that makes revenue, or a bond with some revenue stream behind it. Right now, BC seems to have a niche in unordinary goods, as well as the occasional pizza. But as an investor (I'm assuming you are), I'm sure you want it to expand its market, right? In order for BC to expand its market and grow in value, ultimately, it has to function well as a way to buy and sell ordinary goods every day.
Do you think BC can do that today? If not, what do you think will make that happen? What do you personally use BC for? Have you ever bought anything with it?
Cheers
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Ken Utting wrote: Do you think BC can do that today?
It is used like that today
Ken Utting wrote: What do you personally use BC for?
Amusement; I don't own any. I don't own any dollars either
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: Anything that is traded in a volatile market moves up and down fast
Currencies of first world nations do not. Exchange rates do not change by multiples in short time frames.
As an example one can look to the Chinese yuan versus US dollar. As China has become a economic world leader the rate is far more stable than periods years ago when its economy was less stable.
Dollar Yuan Exchange Rate - 35 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends[^]
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