|
|
It is the model created by Prof. Neil Ferguson and Imperial College in London, used by the UK and US to justify the shutdowns.
|
|
|
|
|
The 16 March 2020 Imperial College paper, entitled, Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce Covid-19 mortality and healthcare demand, has been one of the most influential papers in shaping policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic.
[..]
Most countries have responded in a manner advocated by the paper. Which still baffles me. Only one model, not peer-reviewed or scrutinized as one would expect from "scientists". (I posted similar news to you a few days ago)
If that's not weird enough, see Visual simulations show why we all need to wear masks now #UniversalMasking #masks4all #COVID19 - YouTube[^]. So, home-made masks would have been more effective than staying at home. Seems to work for Japan.
Bastard Programmer from Hell 
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
|
|
|
|
|
|
That points to the lounge, yes. Did you have anything specific in mind? 
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
|
|
|
|
|
Box's Aphorism: "All models are wrong, some are useful." 
Code idealism is just one of the methods of (the many methods) unjustified criticism.
A newer quote would be:
"There are two methods in software design. One is to make the program so simple, there are obviously no errors. The other is to make it so complicated, there are no obvious errors." Tony Hoare
One can always try back of the envelope calculations to get a feel for clarifying what is the problem at hand.
|
|
|
|
|
You'd expect anything other than severe criticism from a site titled "lockdownsceptics.org"?
Having had a fair amount of contact with (and having to clean up!) academic code, as well as (very successful) modelling code written within corporate environments by engineers/researchers who aren't software developers by trade, I think this post is pretty accurate & relevant.
Java, Basic, who cares - it's all a bunch of tree-hugging hippy cr*p
|
|
|
|
|
My lease company called two weeks ago.
My contract is ending in October and they wanted to know what new car I wanted.
I told them my current car is WAY to expensive, €475 a month for a Peugeot 208.
It used to be A LOT cheaper, but I switched lease companies (because I switched employer), the contract was changed a couple of times and then it went from my employer over to me because I didn't want to pay an €8000 fine.
If I got the same car now it would save me €150 A MONTH, so go figure.
For the record, I currently drive less than 10K km a year, so my car is literally gathering dust most of the time.
Anyway, I told the salesman and he said a new contract would be a lot cheaper because it wouldn't have a history.
I said I already made my choice for another lease company, but the salesman asked me to give him a chance.
I gave him the chance and he came up with an offer that would just as expensive as the other company.
So I asked him if he could do anything about my current car, but he couldn't and instead he could subtract €15 from the new contract, which made it a pretty good deal.
I told him I'd think about it over the weekend.
Unlucky for him, I found an even cheaper company.
So I just called the guy to tell him I've made up my mind and I'd go for the cheapest option, which wasn't them.
A good salesman would have congratulated me, tell me he regrets my choice to leave them and wish me all the best with my new car (what else can you do, I've clearly made up my mind?).
Not this one.
He says he feels like it's personal and not fair because he made an effort for me.
Also, this is not how they do business so I didn't need to come back if my new lease company is not what I thought it would be.
I'm not a salesman, but when I lost a sale I went over to the customer and gave the manager a bottle of wine and the team a Christmas treat.
The next sale went sour too, but I thanked them and told them I hoped to see them back in the future.
And some months later they came back and I got a small project from them.
That's how it goes, you win some and you lose some, but you never lose your cool to a customer!
Not this guy, he acted like a crybaby and burned this bridge 
|
|
|
|
|
Sander Rossel wrote: I currently drive less than 10K km a year
brommer not an option?
here they got a car sharing scheme (little electric hatchback things) for those times you need a whole (well being small really like half) car. I'll admot not tried it yet, but they say once you're registered it's way less hassle than traditional rentals (and no 3-day minimum crap, can even do 1/2 days.)
pestilence [ pes-tl-uh ns ] noun
1. a deadly or virulent epidemic disease. especially bubonic plague.
2. something that is considered harmful, destructive, or evil.
Synonyms: pest, plague, CCP
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Car sharing in the age of COVID-19. Sounds awesome!
If you can't laugh at yourself - ask me and I will do it for you.
|
|
|
|
|
I'd suggest if using a share-car bring a can or 20 of disinfectant spray along and bomb the insides and handles / door frames before going anywhere.
It's gotta beat taking public transport (for those with the choice/ability to avoid - some workers don't have any option).
Me: I'm really happy on my bicycle - here if 'exercising' we're allowed to go without the mask (must still put on before starting / after stopping).
pestilence [ pes-tl-uh ns ] noun
1. a deadly or virulent epidemic disease. especially bubonic plague.
2. something that is considered harmful, destructive, or evil.
Synonyms: pest, plague, CCP
|
|
|
|
|
A Peugeot for €475 pcm? 
A quick check here says you can have a nice Merc for that! https://www.mercedesonlease.co.uk/[^]
(I don't lease, I buy second hand instead and avoid the worst of the depreciation that way).
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
|
|
|
|
|
OriginalGriff wrote: A Peugeot for €475 pcm?
Yes, it started out as €325 or something.
Somehow they managed to add €150 a month because of "contract changes" and there's not a damn thing I can do about it 
|
|
|
|
|
Stuff leasing; buy second hand. A couple of years old, and you'll probably end up paying less than you are at the moment, and you get the asset at the end.
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
|
|
|
|
|
Yes, but I'm a sucker for new and mistrusting of everything second hand 
|
|
|
|
|
Then buy it new instead.
Assuming a three year lease, 475pm is 17K - which is around 1K less than the purchase price of a new one (rrp)
At the end of the contract, you have sod all, they have a car worth 8 ~ 10K in perfect condition (because they will charge you to fix any damage, even if they don't actually do it) and that's all bunce. OK, you have to add on costs for servicing, tyres, probably insurance, but you also get to exercise your haggling skills in terms of reductions / upgrades on sales staff that haven't seen a customer in months due to social distancing and lockdowns ... it's worth thinking about.
[edit]
Wow - I just spotted your reply to lopatir: 5 year lease?
And you aren't "customer of the month" every single month with a nice clock and a birthday card?
Can I strongly suggest you sit down and take some quality time with a spreadsheet before you sign on any more dotted lines? Please?
[/edit]
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
modified 11-May-20 11:50am.
|
|
|
|
|
My new car will be about 25K new and I'm leasing it for €360 a month for a five years.
That includes vehicle taxes and insurance and any garage visits I have (although I probably have to pay a part of those).
At the end I'll have paid 22K, but I'll have no rest value.
On the other hand, I'll be able to drive a brand new car in five years time.
Of course buying will be cheaper if I'm keeping it for 10 or even 15 years, but then I'll be driving an old car.
Anyway, I'm choosing lease because it saves me some hassle as well.
The €475 a month is ridiculous so don't use that for any calculations.
Luckily, that'll be over in five months
|
|
|
|
|
Have a go - spend an hour with the internet and Excel and work out the costs involved in buying the same new and selling (or even trading it in) after three years. (I.e. before any major faults are likely to rear their heads)
You may find it interesting, and possibly even profitable (as well as a new car each 3 years if you want, instead of 5. Even newer, even shinier ...  )
"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
AntiTwitter: @DalekDave is now a follower!
|
|
|
|
|
Yeah, I know.
But costs aren't the issue here 
|
|
|
|
|
"But costs aren't the issue here"
At least you're honest about it.
Charlie Gilley
<italic>Stuck in a dysfunctional matrix from which I must escape...
"Where liberty dwells, there is my country." B. Franklin, 1783
“They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” BF, 1759
|
|
|
|
|
It never is when you lease a car
I just want no hassle, deliver that car to my front door, pay for repairs, insurance and tax and in five years replace it with a new one.
That's worth some additional money spread out over five years
|
|
|
|
|
I'm with Griff on this one.
Your five year old car isn't worth 25k - 22k = 3k, it's worth considerably more. Put it into autouncle.nl (or whatever site is the best in nl) and check for yourself.
Also, if you are going to own the car you need to reconsider what brand you want. Go to Reliability Index[^] for some data on cost of ownership, and how often they break down.
I've had a Peugeot 206 once, I'll never do that again, it's the second most expensive car I've had.
|
|
|
|
|
Thanks for the link. Looks promising.
M.D.V.
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you
Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
|
|
|
|
|
General 
News 
Suggestion 
Question 
Bug 
Answer 
Joke 
Praise 
Rant 
Admin 
Submit an article or tip
