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Nand32 wrote: I just realize how, over a period people have started misusing the word estimate.
Generally, the Norwegian word "å estimere" has the same meaning as "to estimate" in English.
But in some north Norway dialects, it is used in the sense of "value", and almost always negated, about a person: "I do not estimate you" meaning "I have no respect for you, you are worth nothing".
A hundred years ago, it was actually used like this all over Norway, both in a positive way, "highly estimated" (like "in high esteem" in English) and negatively. Today, if you tell a south Norway person below 30 years of age that "I do not estimate you", he will probably not understand it as an insult, but rather be curious about which of his physical properties you are not going to estimate - his body weight? Height?
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To follow up on Eddy's example around moving requirements...ask them how long it would take them to bulid a car for you.
When they answer they can't say, ask them why not? They know what a car is, don't they?
Even better, of course, substitute for "car" something in their sphere of expertise.
To be fair, we can't treat these things as academic exercises, either (unless you're in academia, I suppose). At some point, we have to quit refining and release to solve the business need.
Likewise, the business needs to accept "good enough for phase 1" and be ready to iterate, even though phase 1 might, knowingly, be a perfect solution.
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My estimates are always conspicuously wrong.
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Easy to fix, just make a new estimate.
I said: "I'll try"
Boss heard: "I commit"
If you can keep your head while those about you are losing theirs, perhaps you don't understand the situation.
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My boss doesn't have a high estimate of my changing estimates 
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Never give them. Never asked.
Probably people who can ask me to do something know I'll do it until it's done . . . correctly.
Those who they have that do try to meet deadlines (some contractors) mainly turn out shyte that needs to be fixed and patched and finally discarded . . . but they made the deadline. Defects are also a great reason to keep paying them their monthly maintenance.
So - maybe they learn, at the management levels that hire contract developers (usually with talking to their own IT development team) that pushing for some date is not necessarily the best idea.*
| Ravings en masse^ |
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| "The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein | | "If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010 |
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"Those who they have that do try to meet deadlines (some contractors) mainly turn out shyte that needs to be fixed and patched and finally discarded . . . but they made the deadline. Defects are also a great reason to keep paying them their monthly maintenance."
I am a contractor after working 7 years in a real company. I totally agree, especially with the quality of contracting job - often we have to work on piles of dog**** that passed between the hands of many contracting companies, all hurrying up for the lowest price. And, given the prostitution ring that is contracting, we end up doing the same, only to leave another layer of flaming youknowhat to the next unfortunate sap.
GCS d--(d+) s-/++ a C++++ U+++ P- L+@ E-- W++ N+ o+ K- w+++ O? M-- V? PS+ PE- Y+ PGP t+ 5? X R+++ tv-- b+(+++) DI+++ D++ G e++ h--- r+++ y+++* Weapons extension: ma- k++ F+2 X
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Nand32 wrote: What is the percentage of success rates with your dev. estimates?
0%
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The best approach I've seen is taking a realistic estimate, with sensible buffers and margins, and then multiplying the whole thing x3.
I find it extremely annoying that there doesn't seem to be a better way.
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Over 20 years developing hardware and software solutions and I agree that 3x the most reasonable/reasoned estimate seems to be the closest to accurate for a complete delivery. I've seen some guys who can get this down to 2.5x, but it is the rare case.
This is both personally and for many many developers who have worked under me.
As a company owner, my standard has changed. I no longer commit to deadlines. In the rare case when something is critical, we just work like hell, putting in extra hours to deliver as quickly as possible, seeing where things can be shaved to get things done under the deadline.
<hr>
"Qulatiy is Job #1"
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I've tried so many approaches over the last decade or so, and I keep running into that "3x best estimate" wall.
In practice, this is mostly due to testing delays, feedback delays and the limits of human-to-human communication with regards to design and functional specs.
I also noticed that pushing for a 2x estimate in a 2-week sprint, slows down one or two following sprints, making the entire effort pointless. In my experience, this is mostly because the non-developers get tired of the constant communication, and feel that there must be something wrong with the specs. 😅
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Make it a strength, not a weakness!
Get the estimate, multiply by three and you are good to go!
<hr>
"Qulatiy is Job #1"
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Ah, the joys of treating estimates as deadlines.
My advice, don't ever succumb to the management pressure of decreasing your estimates to fit their schedule. Never, ever works.
Second, since everything takes longer than you guess, practice inflating your estimates until they actually seem to predict the time it takes. You can actually get good at this with practice. Good management greatly prefer accurate estimates than low-ball estimates that never make schedule.
Third, don't accept any tasks/work that anyone, even the janitor, has said out loud, "that's easy". If you get it done on time, no credit because it was easy. If you are late, you must be a bad developer because you couldn't deliver something easy on time.
Fourth, if you are ever in a meeting and asked for an estimate, but another manager/developer gives a lower estimate, make them do the work! No matter how much they claim they are too busy to do it. Lowest estimate wins the work. Trust me on this one.
Cheers
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No plan ever survives the battle.
Not to mention Project Creep...
"I'm too old for this S*it" - Norman Fell in "MASH" the movie (not the deplorable TV ripoff)
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As an experienced developer (20+ years), I only try estimate precisely when I'm moving in "known water". If not, I communicate that uncerainty and try to give just a very coarse horizon like "at least two weeks".
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I will eagerly read opinions, advice, and recommendations of car batteties.
Mine just konked out.
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Buy another one. 
Possibly with bigger capacity, if the current one is undersized (it happens).
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I bought myself a usb power bank that also has a connection for jumper cables.
I had a flat battery a couple of weeks ago and it started my car.
I say flat battery, but the battery was not really flat it just would not crank the engine - modern cars apparently ensure that security and some other functions are maintained above being able to crank the engine.
It may be that technically your battery is not flat, you may just need a jump start then a 20 minute drive at speed.
It also worth using a multimeter and or a clamp meter to test how much current is being drawn from the battery when the car engine is off(if you don't have either they are useful tools to have both for the car and around the house).
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
modified 7-May-20 3:05am.
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Any brand names ?
I am really in the dark here.
I heard two conflicting opinions several months ago.
I should have listened to the pessimist.
Is a battery from...
- An auto parts store
- A car care center
- Wal-Mart
- A mechanic's garage/repair shop
...about equal to all the others ?
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buy a name you've heard of,
buy the "middle of the range" model - even 'brands' will OEM entry level from the cheapest supplier,
buy something with a warranty from a better shop / chain, not the $1 store.
(yeah sure, a "5 year warranty" will never stack up, but from a better shop they would at least honor - likely instant replacement - for a bad egg bought in the last few weeks.)
pestilence [ pes-tl-uh ns ] noun
1. a deadly or virulent epidemic disease. especially bubonic plague.
2. something that is considered harmful, destructive, or evil.
Synonyms: pest, plague, CCP
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The battery bank I bought is no longer on Amazon, its an "Arteck Car Jump Starter Auto Battery Booster and 8000mAh External Battery Charger".
If you google you will find lots of similar products, really worth having in the car and topping up every month or so to save you that time when you are late at work and your car won't start when you just want to get home or for helping a colleague at work who has a flat battery.
In terms of multi-meters I have a UNI-T UT30(N15BY) and a UNI-T UT210E clamp meter - probably best not to use on your executive jet but they are fine on cars.
There are plenty of youtube videos on how to use a multimeter to check your car battery.
In terms of buying a new battery an auto parts store is probably a good place to get a battery from.
If your battery is less than 5 years old it probably does not need replacing.
A couple of things to note - listening to the radio/music in the car at lunch while the engine is off will drain the battery as I recently discovered...
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
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I konked out mine due to 2 months total lockdown in Italiakistan and laziness on my part - always said "I go down and keep the engine running for half an hour... tomorrow". Got me a nice 5.7V battery. Had to order a battery charger from Amazon, 40 hours later (it's a 44 Ah battery, it recovers the battery from low charge, charges at 2A and then desulfates) battery was alive and more kicking than ever.
GCS d--(d+) s-/++ a C++++ U+++ P- L+@ E-- W++ N+ o+ K- w+++ O? M-- V? PS+ PE- Y+ PGP t+ 5? X R+++ tv-- b+(+++) DI+++ D++ G e++ h--- r+++ y+++* Weapons extension: ma- k++ F+2 X
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In general lead acid batteries for cars lasts five to seven years.
A battery that's always kept fully charged lasts a lot longer, so don't sit in the car listening to music for a prolonged time without charging it afterwards.
Long drives are better than short drives. Lots of short drives don't allow for fully recharging the battery after the starter engine drains it.
If you let the car stand without getting driven for a longer time you should buy a charger that can trickle charge the battery, especially in the winter. (a proper charger that is, not a rectified transformer)
Don't buy el cheapo no-name batteries, unless you're selling the car. 
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Little secret - most batteries are made by one manufacturer, and the different companies just slap their labels on them.
I use the best batteries available at walmart. I'm a car guy, so if there was really a difference, I'd know it.
".45 ACP - because shooting twice is just silly" - JSOP, 2010
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You can never have too much ammo - unless you're swimming, or on fire. - JSOP, 2010
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When you pry the gun from my cold dead hands, be careful - the barrel will be very hot. - JSOP, 2013
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