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Over 20 years developing hardware and software solutions and I agree that 3x the most reasonable/reasoned estimate seems to be the closest to accurate for a complete delivery. I've seen some guys who can get this down to 2.5x, but it is the rare case.
This is both personally and for many many developers who have worked under me.
As a company owner, my standard has changed. I no longer commit to deadlines. In the rare case when something is critical, we just work like hell, putting in extra hours to deliver as quickly as possible, seeing where things can be shaved to get things done under the deadline.
I've tried so many approaches over the last decade or so, and I keep running into that "3x best estimate" wall.
In practice, this is mostly due to testing delays, feedback delays and the limits of human-to-human communication with regards to design and functional specs.
I also noticed that pushing for a 2x estimate in a 2-week sprint, slows down one or two following sprints, making the entire effort pointless. In my experience, this is mostly because the non-developers get tired of the constant communication, and feel that there must be something wrong with the specs. 😅
My advice, don't ever succumb to the management pressure of decreasing your estimates to fit their schedule. Never, ever works.
Second, since everything takes longer than you guess, practice inflating your estimates until they actually seem to predict the time it takes. You can actually get good at this with practice. Good management greatly prefer accurate estimates than low-ball estimates that never make schedule.
Third, don't accept any tasks/work that anyone, even the janitor, has said out loud, "that's easy". If you get it done on time, no credit because it was easy. If you are late, you must be a bad developer because you couldn't deliver something easy on time.
Fourth, if you are ever in a meeting and asked for an estimate, but another manager/developer gives a lower estimate, make them do the work! No matter how much they claim they are too busy to do it. Lowest estimate wins the work. Trust me on this one.
As an experienced developer (20+ years), I only try estimate precisely when I'm moving in "known water". If not, I communicate that uncerainty and try to give just a very coarse horizon like "at least two weeks".
I bought myself a usb power bank that also has a connection for jumper cables.
I had a flat battery a couple of weeks ago and it started my car.
I say flat battery, but the battery was not really flat it just would not crank the engine - modern cars apparently ensure that security and some other functions are maintained above being able to crank the engine.
It may be that technically your battery is not flat, you may just need a jump start then a 20 minute drive at speed.
It also worth using a multimeter and or a clamp meter to test how much current is being drawn from the battery when the car engine is off(if you don't have either they are useful tools to have both for the car and around the house).
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
buy the "middle of the range" model - even 'brands' will OEM entry level from the cheapest supplier,
buy something with a warranty from a better shop / chain, not the $1 store.
(yeah sure, a "5 year warranty" will never stack up, but from a better shop they would at least honor - likely instant replacement - for a bad egg bought in the last few weeks.)
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2. something that is considered harmful, destructive, or evil. Synonyms: pest, plague, CCP
The battery bank I bought is no longer on Amazon, its an "Arteck Car Jump Starter Auto Battery Booster and 8000mAh External Battery Charger".
If you google you will find lots of similar products, really worth having in the car and topping up every month or so to save you that time when you are late at work and your car won't start when you just want to get home or for helping a colleague at work who has a flat battery.
In terms of multi-meters I have a UNI-T UT30(N15BY) and a UNI-T UT210E clamp meter - probably best not to use on your executive jet but they are fine on cars.
There are plenty of youtube videos on how to use a multimeter to check your car battery.
In terms of buying a new battery an auto parts store is probably a good place to get a battery from.
If your battery is less than 5 years old it probably does not need replacing.
A couple of things to note - listening to the radio/music in the car at lunch while the engine is off will drain the battery as I recently discovered...
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
I konked out mine due to 2 months total lockdown in Italiakistan and laziness on my part - always said "I go down and keep the engine running for half an hour... tomorrow". Got me a nice 5.7V battery. Had to order a battery charger from Amazon, 40 hours later (it's a 44 Ah battery, it recovers the battery from low charge, charges at 2A and then desulfates) battery was alive and more kicking than ever.
GCS d--(d+) s-/++ a C++++ U+++ P- L+@ E-- W++ N+ o+ K- w+++ O? M-- V? PS+ PE- Y+ PGP t+ 5? X R+++ tv-- b+(+++) DI+++ D++ G e++ h--- r+++ y+++* Weapons extension: ma- k++ F+2 X
In general lead acid batteries for cars lasts five to seven years.
A battery that's always kept fully charged lasts a lot longer, so don't sit in the car listening to music for a prolonged time without charging it afterwards.
Long drives are better than short drives. Lots of short drives don't allow for fully recharging the battery after the starter engine drains it.
If you let the car stand without getting driven for a longer time you should buy a charger that can trickle charge the battery, especially in the winter. (a proper charger that is, not a rectified transformer)
Don't buy el cheapo no-name batteries, unless you're selling the car.
Little secret - most batteries are made by one manufacturer, and the different companies just slap their labels on them.
I use the best batteries available at walmart. I'm a car guy, so if there was really a difference, I'd know it.
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Something like 20 years ago, when data storage on half-inch tape was the standard, the National Archives of Norway had bought a pile of tapes of a production batch turning out to be no good: Something had happended to the adhesive gluing the metal oxide to the backing, so the oxide started falling off. The Archive had prepared for that; they made two copies, of different brands of tape.
But the oxide started falling off those tapes as well! This other manufacturer normally produces his own tape, but it was revealed that they had had some problems with the production line, so to serve their customer's needs, they had bough tape from that first manufacturer, labeling it as their own. It turned out that this was from the same production batch.
This caused a major uproar in the European archival world - the Norwegian archives were far from the only ones experiencing these problems. I heard people say that although this was a serious blow to the image of the manufacturer of the faulty tape, it was just as bad for the image of the other one who had disguised faulty tape as his own. He appeared to be even less trustworthy, when you can't be sure that you get the quality he makes himself.
A few years ago, it was revealed that one maker of childrens' clothes produced two different qualities, made by the same design, in the same colors etc. You had to have the alternative side by side, comparing the qualities of the clothes, the robustnes of the zipper, the quality of the seams... to see the difference. The cheap quality was marketed through discount stores selling the "same" clothes, of the "same" models and the same brand name, a lot cheaper than regular stores.
This went to court, and the manufacturer was ordered to make clearly visible distictions between the significantly different qualities. The end result was that the manufacturer dropped the "cheap" line. Discount stores still have lower prices than other stores, but not by far as much lower as they used to.
In the food business, there is lots of this, but the producers make cheaper, lower quality products to be labeled by the budget stores' label. Even if they are made in the same factory, the variants with more high-price labels are of a higher quality. I would think that the same applies to batteries: Even if some investigating jounalist reveals that they are from the same factory, that doesn't mean that they are of teh same quality. It would be like 'revealing' that a huge number of ARM based chips are produced by TSMC, but sold under dozens of brand names. So they are all equally good then, huh?
In food, there is more variation in the quality of 'generic' products. Reasonably high quality big box retailers (e.g. Costco) not infrequently buy products of the same quality as (and/or identical to) the producer's Name brand for relabeling and can still sell them somewhat cheaper. The clue is in the 'somewhat': something sold at half the price of a brand name product is unlikely to be of the same quality.
As previously stated, there are only a handful of actual battery manufacturers and the store brands are just re-labeled. My Choice: I have no real brand loyalty and there aren't any that I have blacklisted
One of the limiting factors is the vast variety of sizes that have come up in the last few decades as cars and engine compartments have shrunk.
One problem is that some of these funky sizes only fit a couple of cars, so stores (either Walmart or local auto parts store) may not have them or there will be a price premium My Choice: Try to get the correct size battery, some will have a secondary battery choice that is more common. You may need to shop around
Different batteries for my car have different power ratings; such as reserve time, cranking amps, cold cranking amps. My Choice: Get the biggest numbers possible. Look up the specs and you will often find out this pick is also the heaviest. That is a good thing and says there is more lead in the plates which generally equates to longer life
Different warranties... My choice really is not affected by this; the heaviest battery generally has the longest warranty
Other factors... If you only plan on having the car for another year or so, it makes no sense to get one with a 10 year warranty
If you live in an arctic climate though... get the biggest baddest that you can
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Make and model of the car? There are two main types of car batteries - flooded acid and AGM (Absorbed Glass Mat). Buy the biggest battery of the same type that will physically fit in the car. Do NOT buy an AGM if your car shipped with a flooded acid battery or vice versa - the two battery chemistries are incompatible when charging.