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0.8% mortality rate, vs a vaccine that has been ruled 95% effective (I'm going with the higher-end figure; I'm not aware any one of the other options have been made out to be more effective than that).
In light of this, doesn't it seem like the vaccine therefore doesn't do much?
Assuming that the vaccine prevents 95% of all infections, the death rate should drop to 5% of the current rate as well. If the current death rate in the US is 3,000/day, that would be expected to drop to 150/day.
All this assumes that the vaccine prevents disease, but not transmission. If the vaccine also prevents transmission, the death rate should drop even lower - the virus has no legs or wings, and can only be passed from one person to another.
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.
Like most things medical, risk/reward comes into play. So, what is riskier for me, vaccine or trying to isolate? I decided the vaccine is less risky. Got my first shot Sunday, via the VA (over 75). 4 weeks to go for the second.
Need another hat for the second head growing out of my left shoulder.
If you can keep your head while those about you are losing theirs, perhaps you don't understand the situation.
Here in the UK (with the new variant) we're running over 1000 deaths per day, (1600 today) and a couple of weeks ago the measured infection rate was around 50,000. Since by definition the "deaths" figure counts people who had a positive test, they were all included in the daily "positives" count. So that means over 1 in 50 are currently DYING of this disease. That's 2% mortality, not 0.8%. In fact, since we know there are a lot of false positives reported in testing (some are claiming up to 70% are false positives), that means the numbers of people actually catching Covid are somewhere between 40,000 and 15,000 - i.e. the actual mortality rate could be as high as 1 in 15, or nearer 7%. And that's just mortality. Of the 15 or so people I know who've caught it, 3 are dead, 3 are living with long-term significant health issues (leaving them unable to live a "normal" life) and another has mid-term (so far; maybe long-term) pain ("Covid toe"). So only half have fully recovered (and that includes my 10-year old grand-daughter, who was "supposed" not to be vulnerable to it).
I got a spam email the other day about a supposed cover-up of a death following vaccination. We've had over 4.2 million people vaccinated here in the UK, about 6% of the population, but I've yet to hear any reliable reports of a fatal outcome. I'll be having my jab when I get the call!
Death rates vary by country - in fact, the counting method here, in the US, has actually varied by state - especially those who chose to ignore it all as a hoax. They're paying for being stupid even as we speak - or should I say, the citizens of those states are paying . . . you can be pretty sure the "management" discretely took precautions. To them, keeping business' open was (and still is) more important than saving lives. Besides, you get the symptoms AFTER you've paid your restaurant or gym/spa bill.
The figure I quote was from the OP - which can vary. The multiplier is from a CDC statistic on mortality vs. age group, setting the mid-to-late-20's as "1" . The death rate increases as the hospitals fill.
As a devil's advocate point, remember that many go asymptomatic and don't get tested - escaping the count and otherwise not lowering the rates. But that's not the point. US death toll, now, is around 400,000 - > 1 in 1000 . Daily death tolls haven't been a "low" as yours since November. Morgues are overflowing into refrigerated truck containers.
This is not the flu - this is a killer (and, as I alluded to and you described in some detail, a crippler, as well). We live in an age where morons want to believe it's a conspiracy - a hoax - perhaps a plot by the Illuminati. So they won't recognize it and take the vaccine. I have a solution to someone who won't take the vaccine: "who's next in line . . . .". I see no reason to talk someone into accepting something such as the vaccine that is so coveted and yet in short supply.
Perhaps, now that the vaccine is available, victimhood will shift ever more towards the fools and fanatics - and so their relative proportion in the population will decrease. When it's over, perhaps it will end up Darwinian in overall effect. The reality, however, is that there's immense sadness as the victims, to start with, were primarily blameless. The party goers? For them I've fewer tears to shed. It's like a biological version of drunk driving. Endangering themselves and others around them "because they have rights".
The precise number/mortality rate isn't important. It's that a deadly disease was politicized. Worse, I perceive (a risk of being political) that the current administration here lied about the "backup" vaccines they have in store and is reversing a ban on air traffic from Brazil and South Africa (even worse variant than UK variant) - to exacerbate the problem for the administrations successors.
Perhaps, now that the vaccine is available, victimhood will shift ever more towards the fools and fanatics - and so their relative proportion in the population will decrease. When it's over, perhaps it will end up Darwinian in overall effect.
we won't be so lucky...
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you
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My last use of carbon paper was several decades ago: I used it as a detector for when I got the preliminary alignment of "my" CO2-TEA laser going. It was even more sensitive than a fluorescent (heat sensitive) phosphor that the professor bought for the purpose. Also, using the fluorescent screen had a secondary drawback: anything much about the bare minimum laser output smoked the sucker - literally. When that happened to the carbon paper, you just moved to another spot and did your best to avoid fires. Sort of worked, years later, with a flash lamp pumped dye laser.
I'd probably seek some out, again, if I were bringing up lasers again.
I have about 1000 sheets of fanfold carbon in my office. When a trainee programmer in the 80s I tested a program that printed to 3-part line-printer. Foolishly (I lived and learnt) the first run was with the correct stationery. It had an endless loop. The operator phoned me up when the first box of stationery was all used up (only printed one line per page) checking if I really needed it, and how many boxes it would take. He made me come down to the machine room and collect it. Seemed an embarrassing waste to put it in the skip, so I took it home as "I'd need carbon paper sometime".