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The latest data I read (via MedScape) puts J&J at about 66%; and in South Africa, more like 50%. So far as that goes, then, if my wife and I both get J&J then it's more-than-likely that one of us is unacceptable (not even including the S. Africa, strains).
Susceptibility is the wrong parameter. What counts is what are your chances, after being vaccinated, that you will get seriously ill from COVID? That's the real story if you really think about it.
So far, the only reliable mass-data in a real environment is Israel. Heavily leaning towards the most susceptible (such as 65 & over), they've been using Phizer and Moderna. Both seemed to do what I'm looking for at barely below 100% efficacy.
As for the J&J, and AstraZeneca - I wish both of them good luck as that's like wishing us all good luck and is a sensible hope. On the other hand, I see motivations for a little fudging of statistics to restore confidence in their yet-to-be-authorized (in US) vaccines. Switzerland is withholding authorization for A-Z .
Meanwhile, at the time I'm writing this, France and Germany[^] are saying no A-Z for seniors. Considering how desperate the EU seems to be to get the stuff, it seems like there's something compelling about their decisions.
NY is way behind in vaccinations. My doctor's office contacted me with this delay, so it is fact, not fiction.
Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today updated New Yorkers on the state's vaccination program. As of 11AM today, New York's health care distribution sites have received 1,554,450 first doses and already administered 95 percent or 1,475,122 first dose vaccinations and 81 percent of first and second doses. Delivery of the week 8 allocation from the federal government is in the process of being delivered to providers for administration.
and so it would seem that NYS is about as caught up as it can be. I'd look for non-equitable distribution of vaccine. Was it fairly distributed on a per-capita basis or did some states (politically favored by the then current administration) get extra (thus shorting others)?
My (our) appointment is through a NY State site - from when I made it until it happens was roughly three months. Are you relying upon your personal physician to get the vaccine? If so, that could be the problem.
so your math/citing's does not cover half the population for NY.
You misinterpreted what I put completely. My citation of the state's progress is that they've distributed just about all the available vaccine they could. The state isn't failing - the vaccine supply (which was misrepresented by previous administration) is what is failing. You can't use what you don't have.
As for some getting second whilst others can't get the first? The second shot is pre-alloocated for the purpose after the frost is given. It has to be. The second shot is to be given 3 wks (4 wks for Moderna) after the first. That's what's been studied/authorized. To delay it so that more people can get their first shot would be asinine to a high degree. It is not know if a delay would weaken the effect - possibly, if delay is long enough, useless (start again?). So why risk wasting what you have available to satisfy the "me me me" of those who've not yet been vaccinated? To win their damn votes? Remember, too, that in all likelihood, those who get properly vaccinated (both doses) are also protecting us who are still waiting by reducing the number of carriers.
There's a problem with you having to wait but its a supply side problem more than anything else
I find it funny that people can get their second vaccination, and most can't even get their first.
There was a talking head on TV yesterday, who was trying to make a case that the second shots should be delayed, so that all who want the vaccine should at least get their first shot. But he based his argument on fake facts: That the second shot works better the longer it is delayed. However, he could offer no proof of this statement.
Depends on who you are trying to convince. The majority of people want to be vaccinated but can’t due to supply limitations etc.
The people who don’t want vaccinations are not the type of people who use logic, statistics appropriately or even use facts for their decision making.
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