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His lack of visionary may sink the company. I guess that would make him an influence. Look at Carly Fiorina. She shrunk and outsourced HP with little overall effect, now she's running for the US Senate. If Balmer sinks Microsoft (or brings it down), will he attempt a run for the President? That will make him more of an influence.
Obviously the ones we haven't heard of will have the greatest impact.
I'd say the direction Facebook, Google TV, Apple TV and tablet-style devices are going is soon to have a very major impact on the way advertising and media is delivered and consumed. I don't see any game-changers coming in that we haven't heard of because they just don't have the clout required to ink deals with big media companies. The only way they'll be involved is through acquisitions by the well known players.
I noticed recently, that most of my decisions have strong influence on many aspects of my life, penetrating even the most private areas. Looking back, that was always the case, with many far-reaching consequences. Noone else has ever been that influential to me (except maybe that dark-eyed temptress with the big grin, but she's doing in mobile phones now). It is of course not easy to predict the future from past data, but if the trend continues, I will be the most influential person tech personality in my life.
Heh. You mean like, which the Steves?
I've re-read virtually all of my cyperpunk library lately, after it dawned to me that it's exactly that: a guessing game how technical developments change society (Try John Shirley's "City Come A-Walkin'" for an early masterpiece, even though the main prediction is completely wrong).
I hate to say it, but from that measure, at the moment it's prolly Steve Jobs.
The iPad and its derivates as pure media consumption devices will long term make a large stab and devices that make creation easy - the PC. The iPad is great for what virtually all consumers do with PC's most of the time - surf the internet, and watch movies. But it likely will remove from many households a device that makes content creation incredibly easy. (I don't know if Scott Adams[^] (last paragraph) came to the same conclusion independently, or he just injected it into my mind through some remote blogger connection months ago, but yeah, that's what happens).
Ballmer, with W7, has reestablished the status quo. He sounds ambitous for W8, but if he'll bring change is hard to say.
 More trends I see:
From ownership to pay-per-use. Be it printer ink, mobile phones, google docs, music and movies. Maybe property will soon be a qauint, antique and something that entertains the really rich.
Privacy will cost you. We'll live in a world where you have to pay for every moment where your boss can't see what you are doing. And if someone says privacy should be the default state, we'd find that weird, incomprehensible. Remember remember, how could someone own the land we walk on?
There are trends that are fueled by mass application of technology not so much than technological innovation: globalization leads to a increasing gap between rich and poor, the remaining "middle class" will be mostly occupied by struggling to <i>not</i> be lumpenprolets.
Ad-Driven. Gibson excellently described a world where private multinational companies acquire the power vacuum left by a more and more insignificant government (and Neal Stephenson does an almost too much in-your-face in Snow Crash). Most peoples education will be McMath and Nike Physics, with truly independent education limited to a small elite.
It's not me, and I don't know this guy, but it warms my heart to see someone that has obviously been inspired by my tales of daring-do, and has, on his own ambition, picked up the torch to carry on my life's work.
It almost brings a tear, ya know?
.45 ACP - because shooting twice is just silly ----- "Why don't you tie a kerosene-soaked rag around your ankles so the ants won't climb up and eat your candy ass..." - Dale Earnhardt, 1997 ----- "The staggering layers of obscenity in your statement make it a work of art on so many levels." - J. Jystad, 2001