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I keep using the same argument all the time: Given how easy it is for all computers I've ever used to fail miserably just trying to keep themselves up to date without my help, I'm not too worried about them taking over anything.
It's already happening. My business partner, who used to be a developer, has just posted another web-based reporting project created with one of those tools that let anyone attach a database and create stunning charts and dashboards. Hey, at least she's contributing (in development) again! (now if she'd just post them in the right place!)
It wasn't exactly AI, or as easy as advertised since the results that she needed required some pretty complicated queries that I had to help with...either that or start cluttering up my databases with views/procs. (creating dependencies! )
I do have to admit that the final product is really nice. What she put together in just a few weeks would have taken me months to do manually. More CP time!
AI tells me about Fowl whenever the country of Turkey is mentioned. Given the current state, I'd say it may take us some generations before we develop a basic AI, capable of basic tasks as surviving and foraging.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
Government can give you nothing but what it takes from somebody else. A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you've got, including your freedom.-Ezra Taft Benson
You must accept 1 of 2 basic premises: Either we are alone in the universe or we are not alone. Either way, the implications are staggering!-Wernher von Braun
The disruption that will hit us will come from a tangential use of AI.
It's not that they will replace our jobs.
It's that it will replace the human jobs that need our services.
Imagine the GUI development that I do that reduces work effort significantly so users can have data as opposed to search for data they need.
Well, once an AI is doing THAT persons job, they will be directly wired to the same data sources I use, and MY value will drop there.
It's not that the AI will become a computer programmer. It's the advent of AIs doing work with full stack access to all of the information they need, will start by requiring fewer programmers in general.
Then some of those AIs will learn to write reports that they can distribute as needed in order to stop having to answer the same management questions from the managers... Who should be replaced by AIs as quickly as possible!
But I remember in the 1980s when a gentlemen (whose daughter I was dating), told me to change my career choice, because CASE is almost good enough to replace programmers today. By the time I graduate college, there will be no programming jobs.
Luckily someone else I knew said "He's probably a Cobol Programmer who writes reports. AND HIS Job will be gone in 10 yrs, but programmers will still be needed."
So, when I hear this stuff about AIs taking our jobs... I don't completely buy it. Because our FIRST Job is GENERAL Intelligence. the ability to ask questions about a NEW Area we know nothing about, to be able to write software to help automate it within hours, days or weeks.
General AI will come some time after we have specific AI for a bit longer. And by definition it will be the most expensive AI time you will be able to buy.
I do think AI access will be a lot like BitCoin Mining. Renting Custom Hardware for $/min and developing systems to NOT pay for it when it is not in use, so the hardware can be shared.
My estimation: not in my life time. Humans are barely can understand the complexity of a system requirement, let alone teaching a machine to think like a human. Algorithms no matter how complex it becomes, still running as an automaton procedure. Until someone can teach a machine to know the difference context between Apple vs Apple where one is a fruit and the other is a giant empire. Not just the definition. Ask a machine what "funny" is, it will recite the definition, dictionary. "Funny" to a human is an emotion.
Which is not to say we will be without work. It's like the industrial revolution in the 19th century when machines took over jobs in more and more areas, replacing muscles with engines. There were certainly lots of workers who suddenly were without work, but society adapted to create more jobs in other areas and generaly reduce working hours so that, in the end, we had just as many jobs as before. And better working conditions, on average. As well as better living standards.
I expect it will be the same with AI: in the short run there will be an increased number of workers losing their job, but then we'll expand in other areas to create more jobs and maybe reduce working hours even more. Besides, since we will be moving towards more sophisticated jobs, our children will need better education as well, and may spend even more time learning in preparation for the post-AI revolution world. And those already occupied may need to spend more time learning to keep up with the development.
Personally I would be happy to have an AI at hand that did the coding for all the algorithms I develop - as a mathematician I tend to lose interest in a problem the moment I see how I can solve it in principle; I am much less interested in the technical realization, and that is rather hurting my overall productivity.
GOTOs are a bit like wire coat hangers: they tend to breed in the darkness, such that where there once were few, eventually there are many, and the program's architecture collapses beneath them. (Fran Poretto)
I started programming in 1968, retired a while back. Coded first in Assembly then COBOL. We were told then that we were going to be obsolete within the decade. Made a good living that decade and many decades after, doing what I enjoyed. Still waiting for an artificial replacement.
Last Visit: 28-May-20 2:49 Last Update: 28-May-20 2:49