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I don't think any model was used at all, at least not initially. The way it was first reported, and we know we can trust reporting, was that based on actual data, not models (false data, but whatever) the death rate was around 4%. That's what started all of the hysteria. Not some computer model.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
The 4% number was based on registered cases and deaths, with the sidenote that not everyone was tested and the amount of infections may be a lot higher; only those very sick would go to the hospital and be tested. That's nice clickbait, but not a realistic number; a model was required, because you need a general idea of the actual spread, not just the measured and confirmed. That 4% is also not the number that was used to make policy;
So as head of the department of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London since 2012, Professor Neil Ferguson has not been short of work. He [Ferguson] modeled the spread of all those outbreaks, advising five UK prime ministers in the process.
On March 16, around a month after the earlier interview, Ferguson delivered a bombshell 20-page paper to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
The message was clear: 510,000 people could die if the government didn't abandon its current strategy of allowing the disease to spread.
New findings show a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of between 0.24 – 0.36% (as opposed to Neil Ferguson who claims the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%).
It seems like a small difference, just half a procent.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
A very famous Irish folk song this week.
I was watching the movie Song of the Sea (2014)[^] when they started singing this song.
Great movie and great song.
Of course I already knew the song from Celtic Woman, but also from the likes of Clannad and Omnia.
Its been sung over and over making it probably one of the most popular songs in Gaelic.
Celtic Woman's version is my favorite though.
And even though I understand nothing of the lyrics it's very catchy
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you
Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
What's so wise about that?
All of our data goes through 3rd party servers.
I have a lot more confidence in GitHub to keep my files safe than in many system admins.
I suspect the hacker from the article guessed a password or even got it through social hacking or a keylogger (that has to be installed as well).
The chances of such a thing happening are small if your people are well trained and aware.
Meanwhile, it allows teams to work from anywhere, which is especially important now.
Let's look at the alternative, put it on your own server and secure it through VPN.
But there's the thing, if someone gets those VPN credentials using the same methods they used to get the GitHub credentials, they'll probably get access to a lot more than just source files.
And who is to say your system administrator secured it correctly in the first place?
Especially if that sort of thing isn't your main business, you'll have to hire a third party to do it for you, but they can't be arsed by making sure you stay up-to-date and have all the latest security patches and before you know it your on-premises server is a lot less safe than a GitHub, Office 365, Azure or what cloud solutions have you.
Even if you have a system administrator, keeping a large enough environment safe is a full time job that also requires constant learning (kind of like maintaining software ).
I'm pretty sure a lot of companies haven't been breached just because they're to small or to unknown and not interesting for hackers.