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I've been monitoring the hurricane season at the National Weather Service for years National Hurricane Center[^] - even before Sandy (2012). Something that I don't recall seeing very much at all is the storms turning Northeast well before approaching the US's East Coast and/or extending into Canada and on to Europe. It's just drawn my attention as I'm so unaccustomed to those paths.
It was rare based upon my recollection - but you residents of UK/Western Europe - has your luck turned sour in the last few years or am I just noticing a run of unusual behavior.
I'm trying to play this from a neutral corner. Weather is, over short periods, always showing trends that are no more than coincidental. I'm not trying to get a 'cause' for this out of anyone (and decay into a soapbox state) - just curious if my observation is observed by those that are usually not hit by these things. Lorenzo's got a bead on Ireland and the UK. How often do they get a tropical storm so very far from the tropics?
No - I was looking at the NHC's map for that storm and saw it where I'm not used to seeing them.
You may wish to look up "strange attractor" - no, not a veiled reference to you and M-M, but a really good description of how weather works.
A plot of Lorenz's strange attractor for values ρ = 28, σ = 10, β = 8/3
An attractor is called strange if it has a fractal structure. This is often the case when the dynamics on it are chaotic, but strange nonchaotic attractors also exist. If a strange attractor is chaotic, exhibiting sensitive dependence on initial conditions, then any two arbitrarily close alternative initial points on the attractor, after any of various numbers of iterations, will lead to points that are arbitrarily far apart (subject to the confines of the attractor), and after any of various other numbers of iterations will lead to points that are arbitrarily close together. Thus a dynamic system with a chaotic attractor is locally unstable yet globally stable: once some sequences have entered the attractor, nearby points diverge from one another but never depart from the attractor.
The term strange attractor was coined by David Ruelle and Floris Takens to describe the attractor resulting from a series of bifurcations of a system describing fluid flow. Strange attractors are often differentiable in a few directions, but some are like a Cantor dust, and therefore not differentiable. Strange attractors may also be found in the presence of noise, where they may be shown to support invariant random probability measures of Sinai–Ruelle–Bowen type.
Examples of strange attractors include the double-scroll attractor, Hénon attractor, Rössler attractor, and Lorenz attractor.